11 names do not mean 11 live packs
The union includes paid, free-reward, limited, unobtainable and TBA records. Availability remains attached to each row.
10-source audit · 11 pack records · reviewed July 30, 2026
Compare every named GAG2 seed pack found across the current directories, separate available and free claims from TBA records, and calculate how many independent rolls reach a 50%, 90%, 95% or 99% chance of your target seed.
The union includes paid, free-reward, limited, unobtainable and TBA records. Availability remains attached to each row.
A June 28 community update says Rare, Uncommon, Mythic, Legendary, Secret and Super pools were rebalanced. Older lists can be stale.
One community publisher labels the five Ghost Pepper rates launch-day confirmed. The rarity-pack tables are explicitly unverified.
Independent-roll probability model
Choose a published drop claim, set your target confidence and compare it with the number of packs you plan to open. The model assumes every roll is independent and the listed rate never changes.
Rolls for 90%
230
Minimum modeled rolls to reach or exceed the selected cumulative chance.
Expected rolls
100
Long-run average only. It is not a guarantee or pity threshold.
Chance after 100
63.396766%
Probability of at least one Ghost Pepper under the model.
Miss chance after plan
36.603234%
Why an “average” number of rolls can still end without the target.
Using the reported 1/3/10/50-roll bundle prices, the cheapest combination that covers at least 230 rolls is modeled at 18,377 Robux. Your 100-roll plan is modeled at 7,990 Robux.
Check the live shop before spending. Prices are June 2026 third-party claims and the calculator does not purchase anything.
Model boundary
No reviewed source proves a pity system, luck boost or protection against duplicate seeds. If the live game changes the table or uses a hidden modifier, these outputs no longer describe that session.
Worked example · published 1% Ghost Pepper rate
A 1% per-roll chance has an expected value of 100 rolls, but 100 attempts produce only about a 63.4% modeled chance of at least one hit. Confidence targets are more useful for planning because they make the remaining miss risk explicit.
50% cumulative chance
69 rolls
90% cumulative chance
230 rolls
95% cumulative chance
299 rolls
99% cumulative chance
459 rolls
These thresholds assume the published rate stays at 1%, every roll is independent and there is no pity counter. Even after the 99% threshold, a modeled 1% miss chance remains.
Pack directory
This is a source union, not an official inventory. “TBA” is kept visible because a complete drop table can exist in community data before the pack has a confirmed live earning route.
Clearest paid route
The reviewed table assigns 50% to Baby Cactus, 30% to Horned Melon, 15% to Glow Mushroom, 4% to Poison Ivy and 1% to Ghost Pepper. Bundle prices are third-party June claims, not a live shop feed.
Keep Robux and Sheckles separate →Free-route claims
Current pages connect them to voting, events or guild rewards. Both 27-crop tables are labeled unverified. Verify the actual reward screen before completing a task for a specific pack.
Inspect guild reward evidence →Do not plan around availability
Legendary, Mythic, Secret and Super have published drop counts, but the reviewed hub marks their sources TBA or conflicted. Probability math does not prove that you can obtain the pack.
Check the dated update archive →SERP conflict audit
Publication date and evidence label matter more than list length. A page can be internally complete while mixing launch data, a later rebalance, unreleased records and rewards that changed names.
Published conflict
A June 19 guide groups five broad types; a later database lists 11 named pack records.
Planner boundary
Use the 11-name union for discovery, but do not imply every record is currently obtainable.
Published conflict
One guide says most packs are purchased with Sheckles; the same publisher's later guide says Ghost Pepper is the only Robux pack and most others are earned free.
Planner boundary
No reviewed first-party source publishes pack purchase routes. The planner labels each community claim by date and status.
Published conflict
Legendary Seed Pack is described as obtainable through Guild Rewards and Carrot Contest while the same item page also calls it TBA, not yet available and without a launch date.
Planner boundary
Treat its obtainment as conflicted until live game evidence or an official announcement resolves the status.
Published conflict
The six rarity-pack pools reportedly changed on June 28, expanding several lists to 27 crops and adding Hypno Bloom.
Planner boundary
Older pack lists may be stale. Rebalanced rates remain unverified community claims and can change again.
Published conflict
Ghost Pepper rates are labeled launch-day confirmed by a community publisher; rarity-pack tables are explicitly labeled unverified.
Planner boundary
The calculator models published inputs and never upgrades a community verification label to official.
What the formula answers
If one pack has probability p, the chance of missing once is 1 − p. Missing every one of n independent rolls is (1 − p)ⁿ. Subtracting that miss probability from one gives the chance of at least one target.
The calculator also reverses the formula to find the smallest whole number of rolls that reaches a chosen confidence. Rounding up matters because players cannot open a fraction of a pack.
What the formula cannot answer
Probability alone cannot say whether a pack is obtainable, whether its crop is profitable, whether the pack is a good use of Robux or whether live code applies luck, pity or account-specific modifiers. Those require separate evidence.
Compare crop economics on the value source comparison and current seed roles on the seed tier consensus.
Source ledger
Roblox defines the game boundary, not the pack tables. Editorial guides show how-to intent and older claims. The current community hub supplies the 11-name union, while item pages provide stronger or explicitly unverified probability labels.
Roblox
Confirms the experience, verified creator, seeds, Seed Shop restocks and exclusive weekly guild rewards. It does not publish seed-pack names, prices, obtainment routes or drop rates.
Inspect source →Grow a Garden 2 Fandom Wiki
Provides a sparse pack index that includes Rare and Legendary pack names but little usable probability or obtainment detail.
Inspect source →All Things How
Publishes five broad pack types and the 50/30/15/4/1 Ghost Pepper table. Its claim that most packs are bought with Sheckles conflicts with the publisher's later guide.
Inspect source →All Things How
Lists rarity packs, Ghost Pepper, weather seeds and quest packs. It says Ghost Pepper is the only Robux pack and describes free quest, weather, voting and guild routes.
Inspect source →GrowAGarden2Wiki.net
Publishes an 11-pack union with source, price and drop-count labels. High-tier obtainment is marked TBA; the page says probability confidence varies by pack.
Inspect source →GrowAGarden2Wiki.net
Claims the June 28 update rebalanced Rare, Uncommon, Mythic, Legendary, Secret and Super tables and supplies new pool sizes plus selected Hypno Bloom rates.
Inspect source →GrowAGarden2Wiki.net
Claims launch-day in-game confirmation for five drop rates, 99/249/799/4499 Robux roll bundles and gifting support.
Inspect source →GrowAGarden2Wiki.net
Publishes 27 probability claims and labels them unverified; Hypno Bloom is listed at 0.00086%.
Inspect source →GrowAGarden2Wiki.net
Publishes 27 probability claims and labels them unverified; Hypno Bloom is listed at 0.00001%.
Inspect source →GAG2.GG
Names Guild Rewards and Carrot Contest as earning paths while also calling the item TBA, not yet available and obtainable. Those internal status conflicts are preserved.
Inspect source →The broadest reviewed current database lists 11 named pack records. That count includes available, limited, unobtainable and TBA entries, so it should not be read as 11 packs you can open today. Earlier guides group only five broad types.
Current community pages describe Uncommon and Rare packs as free vote, event or guild-related rewards. Another guide describes Gardener and Dawn packs from daily and weekly quests. Roblox game metadata confirms weekly guild rewards exist but does not name their pack contents, so verify the live reward screen.
Two reviewed pages publish the same five-way table: Baby Cactus 50%, Horned Melon 30%, Glow Mushroom 15%, Poison Ivy 4% and Ghost Pepper 1%. One community database labels the rates launch-day confirmed; Roblox does not publish them through the reviewed metadata API.
At a stable 1% chance per independent roll, 230 rolls reach just over a 90% cumulative chance of at least one Ghost Pepper. This is a probability threshold, not a guarantee, and assumes no table changes or hidden modifiers.
Reviewed pages conflict. One database marks its source TBA, while another names Guild Rewards and Carrot Contest but also calls the pack TBA, not yet available and obtainable. Treat the route as unresolved until the live game or an official announcement confirms it.
There is no evidence-backed universal best. The Ghost Pepper Pack has the clearest published table but costs Robux. Rare and Uncommon packs are described as free but use unverified rebalanced rates. Secret and Super tables look stronger in one database, yet their obtainment is TBA.
No. Expected rolls equal 1 divided by the per-roll probability and describe a long-run average. Independent random rolls have no guaranteed stopping point unless the live game separately implements a documented pity system.
No reviewed source proves either mechanic for these packs. The calculator uses a fixed probability and independent rolls. If a server boost, account modifier, pity counter or balance patch applies, use the live game result instead.