Correct probability
Cumulative chance is not p × rolls
Repeated independent attempts use 1 − (1 − p)^n. Simply multiplying the displayed chance by the number of rolls can exceed 100% and gives the wrong answer.
Probability tool · evidence reviewed July 30, 2026
Grow a Garden Pet Mutation Calculator
Calculate the chance, Sheckle cost, and Machine time for repeated attempts at Shiny, Rainbow, Ascended, or any custom current-patch probability. Expected rolls are an average—not a guarantee.
Editable odds · legacy preset clearly labeled
Pet Mutation Machine odds calculator
Pick a legacy reported outcome or enter the probability displayed by your current patch. Each roll is treated as independent. The calculator shows the chance of at least one hit, not a guaranteed result or a pity-system prediction.
Ascended · Rare crop mutation applier: Reported to periodically attempt Dawnbound on a nearby crop; this is the rarest legacy Machine outcome.
Hit within 10 rolls
3.15%
Miss every planned roll
96.8%
Planned cost
5B
Planned machine time
10 hours
Mathematical expected rolls
312.5
Expected cost
156.25B
Expected machine time
13 days
| Target chance | Rolls needed | Cost | Machine time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 217 | 108.5B | 9 days |
| 75% | 433 | 216.5B | 18 days |
| 90% | 719 | 359.5B | 30 days |
| 95% | 935 | 467.5B | 39 days |
“Expected rolls” is a long-run average of 1 ÷ p, not a deadline. Independent random rolls can hit earlier or miss far beyond the average. Cost and timer exclude leveling, direct mutation shards, event mechanics, and reroll setup.
Patch boundary
Legacy presets are not live odds
The 12 presets reproduce a pre-June 2026 secondary-source consensus. Later reports mention a new machine and four additional results without a stable verified table.
Mechanic boundary
Machine, shards, and events differ
A guaranteed shard or special event route should not be calculated as a normal Machine roll. Use this tool only when each attempt has the same stated random probability.
Historical secondary-source consensus · snapshot May 10, 2026
Legacy 12-outcome Mutation Machine table
These rounded weights total 100.02%. That is a display-rounding artifact, not evidence of a bonus chance. Treat the table as a historical preset and replace its probability with the value shown by the current game when available.
| Mutation | Reported weight | Category | Effect boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shiny | 32.15% | XP boost | Legacy sources consistently report +15% XP per second. |
| Inverted | 16.08% | XP boost | Legacy sources consistently report +30% XP per second. |
| Windy | 9.65% | Crop mutation applier | Reported to attempt Windstruck on nearby crops; timing and chance scale with pet state. |
| Frozen | 9.65% | Crop mutation applier | Reported to attempt Frozen on nearby crops; timing and chance scale with pet state. |
| Golden | 6.43% | Passive boost | Reported to improve the pet passive; exact scaling is pet- and patch-dependent. |
| Mega | 6.43% | Size and XP | Reported to increase visual size and change hunger and XP behavior; exact ranges are patch-sensitive. |
| Tiny | 6.43% | Size and XP | Reported to reduce visual size and change hunger and XP behavior; exact ranges are patch-sensitive. |
| Rainbow | 3.22% | Passive boost | Legacy sources commonly report a 20% passive boost; this is not the Rainbow crop mutation. |
| Shocked | 3.22% | Weather-dependent crop mutation | Reported to attempt lightning effects during thunderstorms; inactive outside the required weather. |
| Radiant | 3.22% | Plant growth | Reported to advance nearby plant growth; exact interval scales with pet state. |
| Aurora | 3.22% | Crop mutation applier | Reported to attempt Aurora on nearby crops; exact interval and chance scale with pet state. |
| Ascended | 0.32% | Rare crop mutation applier | Reported to periodically attempt Dawnbound on a nearby crop; this is the rarest legacy Machine outcome. |
What the numbers mean
At least one hit
The probability that one or more of your planned independent attempts returns the target mutation.
Miss every roll
The probability that none of the attempts returns the target. This never reaches exactly zero for a chance below 100%.
Expected rolls
The long-run mean 1 ÷ p across many players or repeated experiments. It is not the number at which your personal result becomes due.
Threshold rolls
The smallest whole number of attempts that reaches at least the displayed cumulative probability under the independent-roll model.
Sources and unresolved changes
The legacy weights were cross-checked across the community-maintained Grow a Garden Wiki and three secondary guides. GAGdata’s June 22 update says the Age 500 patch introduced a new Pet Mutation Machine and four new mutations with details still TBC. Because no stable current table was found, this page does not label the presets as live or current.
Grow a Garden Wiki — Pet Mutations
Community-maintained mechanic reference
Inspect source ↗GAGdata — Pet Mutations Guide
Secondary table and June 2026 change warning
Inspect source ↗BloxInformer — Pet Mutations
Secondary odds and overwrite behavior cross-check
Inspect source ↗GameGeekFusion — Pet Mutations Tier List
Secondary Rainbow and Ascended odds cross-check
Inspect source ↗Pet mutation calculator FAQ
How are Pet Mutation Machine odds calculated?
For a single-roll probability p and n independent attempts, the chance of at least one hit is 1 − (1 − p)^n. The calculator also shows the complementary chance that every planned roll misses.
How many rolls guarantee Ascended?
No finite number of independent random rolls guarantees a hit unless the game provides a pity system. The legacy reported Ascended chance is 0.32% per roll; use the threshold table to compare 50%, 75%, 90%, and 95% cumulative chances.
Are the 12 preset mutation chances current?
They are a historical secondary-source consensus snapshot from before the June 2026 Age 500 and Inferno changes. Newer sources reported a new machine and additional outcomes still marked TBC. Enter the probability shown in your current game whenever it differs.
Does this include shards and event mutations?
No. A guaranteed shard, seasonal NPC, hatch-area mutation, Inferno route, or other event mechanic does not use the same random Machine probability. The calculator is for repeated independent attempts with one stated chance.
Continue the pet workflow
Mutation odds answer acquisition risk. Weight, XP time, cooldown, and Trade Token value are separate decisions.